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Individual-based vs deterministic models for macroparasites: host cycles and extinction.

Roberto Rosà1, Andrea Pugliese, Alessandro Villani

  • 1Centre for Alpine Ecology, Viote del Monte Bondone, 38040 Trento, Italy. rosa@cealp.it

Theoretical Population Biology
|May 14, 2003
PubMed
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Stochastic models reveal that host-macroparasite dynamics can exhibit sustained oscillations, unlike deterministic models. These oscillations can threaten parasite persistence, but density-dependence offers some protection.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Host-macroparasite system dynamics are primarily understood through deterministic models.
  • Deterministic models simplify complex ecological interactions, potentially missing crucial stochastic effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze an individual-based stochastic model for host-macroparasite systems.
  • To compare the dynamics predicted by the stochastic model with those of classical deterministic models.

Main Methods:

  • An individual-based stochastic model was formulated, mirroring assumptions of deterministic counterparts.
  • Simulations were conducted using parameter values derived from empirical case studies.
  • The impact of density-dependence and external parasite reservoirs on host-parasite dynamics was investigated.

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Main Results:

  • Stochastic simulations largely preserved average variable values and cycle lengths seen in deterministic models.
  • Stochasticity induced sustained oscillations, even when deterministic models predicted damped cycles.
  • High-amplitude oscillations threatened parasite persistence, though density-dependence offered partial mitigation.
  • External parasite reservoirs increased host extinction risk, but probability was insensitive to infection levels in a specific range.

Conclusions:

  • Stochasticity plays a critical role in shaping host-macroparasite dynamics, leading to potentially persistent oscillations.
  • Parasite persistence is vulnerable to stochastic fluctuations, with density-dependence offering a stabilizing effect.
  • External parasite influx can drive host extinction, independent of infection intensity within certain parameters.