Predicting regional emissions and near-field air concentrations of soil fumigants using modest numerical algorithms:...

Soil fumigants, used to control nematodes and crop disease, can volatilize from the soil application zone and into the atmosphere to create the potential for human inhalation exposure. An objective for this work is to illustrate the ability of simple numerical models to correctly predict pesticide volatilization rates from agricultural fields and to expand emission predictions to nearby air concentrations for use in the exposure component of a risk assessment. This work focuses on a numerical system using two U.S. EPA models (PRZM3 and ISCST3) to predict regional volatilization and nearby air concentrations for the soil fumigant 1,3-dichloropropene. New approaches deal with links to regional databases, seamless coupling of emission and dispersion models, incorporation of Monte Carlo sampling techniques to account for parametric uncertainty, and model input sensitivity analysis. Predicted volatility flux profiles of 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D) from soil for tarped and untarped fields were compared against field data and used as source terms for ISCST3. PRZM3 can successfully estimate correct order of magnitude regional soil volatilization losses of 1,3-D when representative regional input parameters are used (soil, weather, chemical, and management practices). Estimated 1,3-D emission losses and resulting air concentrations were investigated for five geographically diverse regions. Air concentrations (15-day averages) are compared with the current U.S. EPA's criteria for human exposure and risk assessment to determine appropriate setback distances from treated fields. Sensitive input parameters for volatility losses were functions of the region being simulated.