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Don't trust your gut.

Eric Bonabeau1

  • 1Icosystem, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. eric@icosystem.com

Harvard Business Review
|May 16, 2003
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

High-stakes business decisions require rigorous analysis, not just intuition. Advanced decision-support tools help managers make rational choices amid complexity, outperforming gut feelings.

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Area of Science:

  • Business Strategy
  • Decision Science
  • Management

Background:

  • High-stakes business decisions are increasingly complex due to multiplied choices and data.
  • Managers often rely on human intuition as a decision-making tool.
  • Over-reliance on intuition can be dangerous when detached from rigorous analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the reliability of human intuition versus analytical methods in business decision-making.
  • To explore the role of technology in enhancing decision-making processes.
  • To determine the most effective approach for making sound business choices in complex environments.

Main Methods:

  • The study critically examines the concept of managerial intuition.
  • It contrasts intuition with reason and data analysis in business contexts.

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  • It investigates the potential of technology-driven decision-support tools.

    • Main Results:

    • Intuition is a fickle and undependable guide when detached from rigorous analysis.
    • Reliance on instinct should decrease as complexity, data volume, and unprecedented challenges increase.
    • Decision-support tools can help executives efficiently analyze alternatives.

    Conclusions:

    • Human intuition should not substitute for reason and analysis in business decision-making.
    • Technology-powered decision-support tools, combined with managerial expertise, enable sound, rational choices.
    • These tools offer a superior capability for navigating complex business environments compared to intuition alone.