Useful markers for predicting severity and monitoring progression of acute pancreatitis

The main problem in staging acute pancreatitis is the lack of accurate predictors of disease severity and of markers for progression of acute pancreatitis.

We reviewed the literature for all candidate markers of acute pancreatitis and graded their usefulness and practicability for prediction of severe pancreatitis and for monitoring disease progression.

Several markers can differentiate mild and severe cases of acute pancreatitis with a high positive predictive value. Trypsinogen activation peptide and procalcitonin show significant differences in patients with mild and severe disease already on admission. While most parameters peak early and decrease rapidly thereafter, C-reactive protein (CRP), phospholipase A(2), procalcitonin and serum amyloid A are reliable predictors with persistently elevated levels in severe disease. CRP is still the reference parameter of all predictors indicating severe disease and pancreatic necrosis. So far, no single parameter has been developed which is suitable for early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis.

Of all markers available today, CRP is the 'gold standard' in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis, but procalcitonin seems to be a promising tool to monitor the progression of the disease. CRP has already been established in clinical routine. For procalcitonin, a practicable assay is also available and could easily be adopted into clinical routine.