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Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

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Global patterns of endemic species are driven by past climate change. Areas with smaller climatic shifts (Milankovitch oscillations) have more endemic species, suggesting future climate change will impact biodiversity.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Biogeography
  • Paleoclimatology

Background:

  • Global patterns of range-restricted endemic species distribution remain incompletely understood.
  • The influence of past climatic fluctuations on speciation and extinction rates is a key question in evolutionary biology.
  • Rapoport's rule, describing increasing species range sizes with latitude, requires a robust explanatory mechanism.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal relationship between past climatic change amplitude and global patterns of species endemism.
  • To test whether Milankovitch-scale climatic oscillations predict the number of endemic species across diverse taxa.
  • To evaluate the predictive power of past climate change versus current climate variables for endemism.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized global circulation models to estimate past changes in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum.
  • Correlated temperature change amplitude with the number of endemic species for mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and vascular plants.
  • Assessed the robustness of the relationship across varying geographical areas, latitudes, glaciation extents, and island/mainland habitats.

Main Results:

  • A significant negative correlation was found between the magnitude of past temperature change and the number of endemic species across multiple taxa.
  • This relationship held true for areas larger than 10^4 km², irrespective of latitude, glaciation history, or island status.
  • Past climatic change amplitude proved a stronger predictor of endemism than annual temperature range for most taxa, supporting a link to Rapoport's rule.

Conclusions:

  • The amplitude of past climatic change, particularly Milankovitch oscillations, is a primary driver of global patterns in species endemism.
  • Rapoport's rule may be explained by increasing climatic oscillation amplitude towards the poles.
  • Endemic-rich regions are projected to experience less warming but face habitat loss and potential extinctions due to climate change.