Chaos in a dynamic model of traffic flows in an origin-destination network

In this paper we investigate the dynamic behavior of road traffic flows in an area represented by an origin-destination (O-D) network. Probably the most widely used model for estimating the distribution of O-D flows is the gravity model, [J. de D. Ortuzar and L. G. Willumsen, Modelling Transport (Wiley, New York, 1990)] which originated from an analogy with Newton's gravitational law. The conventional gravity model, however, is static. The investigation in this paper is based on a dynamic version of the gravity model proposed by Dendrinos and Sonis by modifying the conventional gravity model [D. S. Dendrinos and M. Sonis, Chaos and Social-Spatial Dynamics (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1990)]. The dynamic model describes the variations of O-D flows over discrete-time periods, such as each day, each week, and so on. It is shown that when the dimension of the system is one or two, the O-D flow pattern either approaches an equilibrium or oscillates. When the dimension is higher, the behavior found in the model includes equilibria, oscillations, periodic doubling, and chaos. Chaotic attractors are characterized by (positive) Liapunov exponents and fractal dimensions.(c) 1998 American Institute of Physics.