Comparing the observed and predicted effectiveness of folic acid fortification in preventing neural tube defects

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when researchers try to extrapolate results...

The ability of a drug to produce structural deformations and functional abnormalities in the developing embryo or the fetus is called teratogenicity, and the drug producing this effect is known as a teratogen. Teratogenic effects include stillbirth, miscarriage, intrauterine growth restriction, and neurocognitive delay. A teratogen may affect the embryo at different stages of development, which is important in determining the type and extent of the damage. During blastocyst formation, the early...