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Impacts and evolution: future prospects.

David Morrison1

  • 1NASA Astrobiology Institute, Mountain View, California 94035, USA. dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov

Astrobiology
|June 14, 2003
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Cosmic impacts, like asteroid and comet collisions, significantly influence Earth's biological evolution and can cause mass extinctions. Early detection and mitigation strategies for near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are crucial for planetary defense.

Area of Science:

  • Astrobiology and Planetary Science
  • Impact Cratering and Hazard Assessment

Background:

  • Cosmic impacts from asteroids and comets are recognized as major drivers of biological evolution and mass extinctions on Earth.
  • Understanding the dynamics of biological evolution includes assessing extraterrestrial influences, such as catastrophic environmental disruptions from celestial body collisions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the influence of cosmic impacts on planetary environments and biological evolution.
  • To model the effects of various impact energies and assess the contemporary impact hazard.
  • To inform public policy regarding planetary defense against impact threats.

Main Methods:

  • Derived time-averaged impact flux from lunar cratering statistics and near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population data.
  • Modeled impact effects using historical impact data (e.g., Cretaceous-Tertiary event) and observations (e.g., Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Combined impact flux with environmental and ecological effect estimates to determine contemporary hazards.

    • Main Results:

    • Terrestrial environments are highly vulnerable to impact perturbations, with events like the KT impact causing mass extinctions.
    • The greatest contemporary hazard is posed by impactors around 2 km in diameter (1 million megatons).
    • The Spaceguard Survey has identified over half of NEAs larger than 1 km, enabling early detection of potential threats.

    Conclusions:

    • Impact risk is a significant natural hazard, comparable to others, but unlike most, it can be largely mitigated with sufficient warning.
    • Early detection and orbit projection of NEAs are the first priority for impact defense.
    • Advanced knowledge allows for the deflection or disruption of threatening projectiles, largely eliminating impact risk.