N-losses and energy use in a scenario for conversion to organic farming

The aims of organic farming include the recycling of nutrients and organic matter and the minimisation of the environmental impact of agriculture. Reduced nitrogen (N)-losses and energy (E)-use are therefore fundamental objectives of conversion to organic farming. However, the case is not straightforward, and different scenarios for conversion to organic farming might lead to reduced or increased N-losses and E-use. This paper presents a scenario tool that uses a Geographical Information System in association with models for crop rotations, fertilisation practices, N-losses, and E-uses. The scenario tool has been developed within the multidisciplinary research project Land Use and Landscape Development Illustrated with Scenarios (ARLAS). A pilot scenario was carried out, where predicted changes in N-losses and E-uses following conversion to organic farming in areas with special interests in clean groundwater were compared. The N-surplus and E-use were on average reduced by 10 and 54%, respectively. However, these reductions following the predicted changes in crop rotations, livestock densities, and fertilisation practices were not large enough to ensure a statistically significant reduction at the 95% level. We therefore recommend further research in how conversion to organic farming or other changes in the agricultural practice might help to reduce N-surpluses and E-uses. In that context, the presented scenario tool would be useful.