Pancreatitis in HIV infection: predictors of severity

Acute pancreatitis occurs at greater frequency in HIV-infected patients than in the general population. We set out to determine the frequency of severe acute pancreatitis in HIV-positive patients and to study the accuracy of The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Ranson, and Glasgow scales for prediction of clinical disease severity.

A total of 73 HIV-infected patients with acute pancreatitis were identified retrospectively. Demographic and clinical parameters as well as clinical outcomes were established. Sensitivities and specificities of the three scales mentioned above were calculated and compared.

Of the patients, 63 (83.6%) had AIDS. The majority of cases were medication-induced (46%) or idiopathic (26%). The incidence seemed to be declining in the late 1990s. Eleven patients (15%) had a severe course as defined by death, admission to the intensive care unit, or local complications requiring surgery. Eighteen case (24.6%) were considered severe as defined by the criteria established at the International Symposium on Acute Pancreatitis in Atlanta in 1992. APACHE II criteria best predicted outcome with an overall accuracy of 75% (Glasgow 69%, Ranson 48%). Maximal accuracy was achieved with cut-offs of 14 for APACHE II and 4 for the Glasgow and Ranson criteria.

HIV-infected patients have a clinical outcome similar to that of the general population. Clinical predictive scales are applicable and useful in this population.