Predictive accuracy of rural physicians' stated retention plans

Area of Science:

• Rural Health Workforce Studies
• Physician Retention Dynamics
• Healthcare Management

Background:

• Studying rural physician retention is challenging due to the long-term nature of job changes.
• Anticipated retention, based on surveys of expected job duration, is used as a proxy for actual retention.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the accuracy of rural physicians' self-reported retention plans.
• To determine if factors like experience, work control, and burnout risk influence prediction accuracy.

Main Methods:

• A 1991 national mail survey collected retention plans from rural physicians.
• A follow-up survey 5-6 years later assessed actual job changes (N=405).

Main Results:

• Group retention predictions closely matched actual retention rates.
• Individual predictions showed moderate accuracy: 80% of those expecting to stay 5+ years did so; 67% of those expecting to leave within 5 years did.
• Predictions were more accurate for physicians with greater practice control and lower on-call frequency.

Conclusions:

• Rural generalist physicians' anticipated retention statements are moderately accurate predictors of their actual job tenure.
• This validates the use of anticipated retention in rural health workforce research.