Social and medical risk indicators for 8-year mortality in a Swedish urban elderly population

The aim of this study was to identify and evaluate social and medical risk indicators for mortality in an urban elderly population. Altogether 217 subjects (144 women and 73 men, mean age 78 years, range 69-96 years of age) participated in an examination 1990/91. Eighty-eight persons (55 women and 33 men) had died, and 129 subjects (89 women and 40 men) were alive January 1, 1999. Several risk indicators were found and those with the highest statistical explanatory power to predict mortality were: tremor, inability for heavy housework, a pathological second heart sound, low triceps skinfold, low diastolic blood pressure and decreased appetite. A multivariate model (MVM) utililizing both social and medical risk indicators, and a clinical model (CM) based on the judgement of a registered nurse identified 49 and 34%, respectively, of those who died during the 8-year period (n = 88). A third risk group, the intervention group, comprising individuals selected by either the MVM or CM models, identified 56% of those who died. The latter procedure could be used to define risk groups for mortality in future intervention studies. The combination of social and medical risk indicators in MVM, and a CM might be used in studies with larger sample sizes in order to increase the knowledge in this field.