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Cancer mortality trends in the EU and acceding countries up to 2015
M J Quinn1, A d'Onofrio, B Møller
1National Cancer Intelligence Centre, Office for National Statistics, London, UK. mike.quinn@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Summary
European cancer mortality is projected to increase slightly by 2015, despite declining age-standardised rates. This rise is driven by demographic changes, with higher increases expected in males and acceding countries. Further improvements in survival can reduce future cancer deaths.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- European cancer mortality rates have declined since the late 1980s.
- Trends in age-specific and age-standardised cancer mortality require examination.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze cancer mortality trends up to 2020 in EU countries, acceding countries, and EEA nations.
- To forecast cancer deaths considering demographic changes and current trends.
Main Methods:
- Cancer mortality rates were modeled using age, calendar period, and birth cohort.
- Birth cohort was calculated by subtracting age from the calendar period.
Main Results:
- An estimated 1.25 million cancer deaths are projected for 2015, an 11% increase from 2000.
- Forecasted increases in cancer deaths are proportionally higher in males (13%) and acceding countries (14%).
- These figures are lower than projections based solely on demographic changes.
Conclusions:
- Forecasts represent conservative estimates of future cancer mortality.
- Significant reductions in cancer mortality are achievable through improved survival rates.
- Eliminating disparities in treatment and knowledge can enhance survival and reduce deaths.