Evolution of signal emission by non-infested plants growing near infested plants to avoid future risk

Several plant species indirectly defend themselves against herbivory by attracting natural enemies of herbivores by releasing signal chemicals when infested. Previous empirical research suggested that the chemical signals also reflexively induce signal emission by neighboring undamaged plants. We hypothesize that such a reflexively induced signal is a defensive strategy used by undamaged plants to avoid possible future risk. Using a mathematical model, we show that this defense against future risk can evolve if the following conditions are met: (1) the cost of the signal is small relative to the cost of damage by infestation, (2) the attractiveness of the signal to natural enemies is positively correlated with the local density of the signal chemical, (3) plants with infested neighbors are at greater risk than those without infested neighbors, and (4) the lifespan of plants is long compared with that of herbivores. We also discuss the relationship between our model and recent models of the evolution of cooperation.