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The aging population and its impact on the surgery workforce.
David A Etzioni1, Jerome H Liu, Melinda A Maggard
1Department of Surgery, VA Greater Los Angeles Health Care System, Los Angeles, CA 90403, USA. detzioni@mednet.ucla.edu
Annals of Surgery
|August 2, 2003
Summary
The aging U.S. population will significantly increase demand for surgical services, with predicted workload increases of 14-47%. Surgeons must prepare for this surge to maintain quality of care.
Area of Science:
- Demographics and Public Health
- Surgical Services Research
- Healthcare Demand Forecasting
Background:
- The U.S. population is growing and aging, with a notable increase in individuals over 65.
- Population forecasts indicate substantial growth in the elderly demographic by 2010 and 2020.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the future demand for surgical procedures driven by demographic shifts.
- To predict the impact of an aging population on surgical service utilization.
Main Methods:
- Utilized age-specific surgical procedure rates from national surveys (1996 National Hospital Discharge Survey, National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery).
- Integrated procedure rates with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services relative value units to estimate surgical work per capita by age group.
- Combined per capita surgical work estimates with population projections to predict future demand.
Main Results:
- Projected significant increases in surgical workload across all specialties, ranging from 14% to 47%.
- Anticipated variations in demand increases across different surgical specialties.
- The aging demographic is the primary driver for the predicted rise in surgical service demand.
Conclusions:
- The aging U.S. population will substantially elevate the demand for surgical services.
- Healthcare providers, particularly surgeons, must strategize to manage increased surgical workloads effectively.
- Maintaining high standards of care amidst growing demand is crucial for surgical specialties.