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A water resources threshold and its implications for food security.

Hong Yang1, Peter Reichert, Karim C Abbaspour

  • 1Swiss Federal Institute for Environmental Science and Technology (EAWAG), Ueberlandstrasse 133, P.O. Box 611, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland. hong.yang@eawag.ch

Environmental Science & Technology
|August 7, 2003
PubMed
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Cereal imports help offset water deficits, but rising demand strains resources. Many poor, populous nations may soon face unaffordable food imports due to water scarcity.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Resource Management

Background:

  • Cereal imports are vital for countries facing local water deficits.
  • Understanding the relationship between water scarcity and cereal imports is crucial for policy-making.
  • Global food security is increasingly linked to water resource availability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the relationship between water deficit and cereal import demand.
  • To identify a water resource threshold below which cereal import demand escalates.
  • To project future trends in cereal import demand based on water resource availability.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of data from Asian and African countries.
  • Estimation of a water resources threshold for cereal import.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Trend analysis of the water resource threshold over time.

    • Main Results:

    • A significant water resources threshold for cereal import was identified.
    • Below this threshold, cereal import demand increases exponentially as water resources decline.
    • The threshold declined from 2000 m³/(capita year) in the early 1980s to 1500 m³/(capita year) by the late 1990s.
    • Oil-rich nations historically afforded imports, but future challenges loom for poorer, populous countries.

    Conclusions:

    • Declining water resources and population growth will challenge food security.
    • Many developing nations may face unaffordable cereal imports in the coming decades.
    • Proactive national and international policies are needed to address water deficit-induced food insecurity.