Related Experiment Video
Updated: Sep 11, 2026

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
An estimate of spatial uncertainty of mean concentrations predicted by Gaussian dispersion models
1Nuclear Science Center, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA. nserno@lsu.edu
Abstract:
Atmospheric dispersion models based on statistical theory predict the stochastic mean concentration at fixed points downwind. The uncertainty in the computed concentration, often expressed as a peak-to-mean ratio, is known to vary between two and five for Gaussian dispersion models. This paper shows that this can be correlated to uncertainty in the predicted location of a fixed concentration, and that in the centerline of the plume it is related to sigma(theta), the standard deviation of the observed horizontal wind direction. Practical formulae and methods are given that may be applied in the post-dispersion calculation phase of the risk assessment to ascertain the likely hazard zones.
Related Concept Videos
Estimating Population Mean with Known Standard Deviation
The confidence interval estimate will have the form as follows:
(point estimate - error bound, point estimate + error bound)
The...
Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the Guinness...
Uncertainty: Overview
Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error
Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals
Linear Approximations

