Statistics of rare strong bursts in autocatalytic stochastic growth with diffusion

Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.However, realistic environmental conditions limit the number of...

Natural selection—probably the most well-known evolutionary mechanism—increases the prevalence of traits that enhance survival and reproduction. However, evolution does not merely propagate favorable traits, nor does it always benefit populations.Life is not fair. A deer grazing contentedly in a field can have her meal cut tragically short by a bolt of lightning. If the doomed doe is one of only three in the population, 1/3 of the population’s gene pool is lost. Random events like this can...

Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...

Bacterial populations exhibit exponential growth when conditions such as nutrient availability and temperature are favorable. In this phase, cells reproduce through binary fission, where each cell divides into two identical daughter cells. This process causes the population to double at regular intervals, resulting in a growth rate that is directly proportional to the current number of cells. As the population increases, the number of new cells formed during each generation also grows, creating...

Exponential models are essential for describing rapid, multiplicative changes in natural systems, such as population growth. When a population doubles at regular intervals, the process can be modeled using a suitable base. For instance, a bacterial culture that doubles every three hours follows the model n(t)=n0⋅2t/3, where n(t) is the population at the time t.A more general model uses the natural base e, especially for continuous growth. This takes the form n(t)=n0⋅ert, where r is the relative...

Population dynamics can be described mathematically by considering the population size P(t) as a function of time. The rate of change of the population is then represented by the derivative of P(t). A simple assumption is that the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population itself. This leads to an exponential growth model, where the population increases rapidly without bound. While this is a useful first approximation, it does not reflect realistic long-term...