Estimation of dioxin risk to Japanese from the past to the future

The transport processes of seventeen 2,3,7,8-chlorinated congeners of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) from their major sources to humans were modeled to estimate the time course, from the past to the future, of the human health risk to the Japanese population. The comparison between measured and estimated values showed that the present modeling approach represented the background levels of congeners in the environment, daily intake, and body burden reasonably well, except for in the case of 2,3,7,8-TCDF. Although PCDD/Fs in herbicides have contributed greatly to the daily intake and body burden to the Japanese population in the past, the main sources of the present intake and burden of PCDD/Fs is estimated to be incinerators. The margin of exposure (MOE) for the risk of morphological reproductive alteration in female offspring exposed prenatally was calculated based on the estimated maternal body burden. The results indicated that the MOE values were in the single digits, implying that these values may not be sufficiently large to guarantee the safety of female offspring of mothers born in the 1950s, whereas the MOE values for female offspring born in and after the latter half of the 1990s may be sufficiently large to guarantee safety.