[Long-term survival and prognostic factors in stage II-III multiple myeloma treated with conventional chemotherapy]

In this retrospective study, survival and prognostic factors were analysed in 65 patients with stage II-III multiple myeloma with osteolytic lesions. Multiple myeloma was diagnosed from 1976 to 1984, and patients were treated with conventional chemotherapy. The response rate to initial chemotherapy was 46%. The median survival time was 31 months. The 10-year survival rate was 10%. Four variables were individually prognostic: response to initial chemotherapy, bone marrow plasma cell percentage, the Durie and Salmon staging system, a biological staging system derived from Durie and Salmon's biological criteria regardless of bone lesions. In the multivariate analysis, only two prognostic variables were retained, namely the response to chemotherapy and the biological staging system. No prognostic value was observed for the extent of osteolytic lesions. This study suggests that, in conventionally treated multiple myeloma, long-term survival has improved compared with the previous decade. It also indicates that the extent of osteolytic lesions has little value for the definition of high-risk myeloma.