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Published on: April 23, 2012
Risk assessment for aflatoxin B1: a modeling approach
A H Wu-Williams1, L Zeise, D Thomas
1Reproductive and Cancer Hazard Assessment Section, Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, Berkeley, California 97404.
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and aflatoxin intake interact to influence primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC) rates. Models suggest a multiplicative or interactive effect, not purely additive, impacting aflatoxin potency estimates.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Toxicology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and aflatoxin exposure are known risk factors for primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC).
- Geographic variations in PHC incidence suggest complex interactions between HBV and environmental carcinogens like aflatoxin.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the cancer potency of aflatoxin using data from Southern Guangxi, China.
- To investigate the interaction between HBV and aflatoxin intake in the development of PHC, exploring additive, multiplicative, and interactive models.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of epidemiological data on HBV, aflatoxin exposure, and PHC rates from Yeh et al.
- Application of relative and excess risk models to assess the joint effects of HBV and aflatoxin.
- Model validation by comparing predictions with U.S. PHC incidence rates.
Main Results:
- Purely additive models did not adequately fit the observed PHC data.
- Multiplicative relative risk and interactive excess risk models provided satisfactory fits to the data.
- A significant difference in aflatoxin potency estimates was observed between the multiplicative (5.7 (mg/kg-day)-1) and interactive (45.6 mg/kg-day)-1) models.
Conclusions:
- HBV and aflatoxin intake likely interact in a non-additive manner to increase PHC risk.
- The choice of risk model significantly influences the estimated potency of aflatoxin.
- Further research is needed to elucidate the precise mechanisms of HBV-aflatoxin interaction in hepatocarcinogenesis.
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