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A kin selection model for the evolution of virulence.

¹Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine 92717.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences

|December 22, 1992

Summary

This study models parasite virulence, finding that competition among strains in multiple infections can increase disease severity. The evolution of virulence depends on the trade-off between host damage and parasite transmission strategies.

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Area of Science:

Evolutionary biology
Parasitology
Mathematical modeling

Background:

Parasite virulence, the harm a parasite inflicts on its host, presents a trade-off between transmission and host survival.
Increased host mortality due to virulence can damage the parasite's resources, impacting its own fitness.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze the costs and benefits of parasite virulence using an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) model.
To quantitatively predict the ESS virulence rate based on factors influencing parasite fitness and host-parasite interactions.

Main Methods:

Analysis of an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) model.
Modeling the relationship between parasite virulence, transmission, host defenses, and the coefficient of relatedness among co-infecting strains.

Main Results:

High virulence, despite increasing transmission or overcoming host defenses, can reduce parasite fitness by damaging the host's resources.
A quantitative prediction for ESS virulence rate is provided as a function of the relatedness among co-infecting parasite strains.

Conclusions:

The evolution of parasite virulence is influenced by the balance between the costs of harming the host and the benefits of enhanced transmission or immune evasion.
Competition among parasite strains in multiple infections can drive higher virulence, with the specific outcome dependent on the relatedness of strains and their transmission mechanisms.

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