The influence of flight experience on midair collision risk perception

Although successful collision avoidance is presumed a learned skill, midair collision accidents typically involve highly experienced pilots. It is hypothesized that pilot complacency, arising from a history of incident-free flights, plays a role in the midair collision process. Pilot risk perception is explored using Laplace's Law of Succession, and the resulting perceived collision probability compared to reality. The two converge at around 5,000 hours of flight experience.