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Predicting psychiatric admission rates.

B Jarman1, S Hirsch, P White

  • 1Department of General Practice, St Mary's Hospital Medical School, London.

BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.)
|May 2, 1992
PubMed
Summary
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Psychiatric admissions in England varied significantly from expected rates. Factors like drug misuse notification, mortality, and illegitimacy best explained these variations, aiding resource allocation predictions.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Services Research
  • Psychiatry

Background:

  • Psychiatric admission rates exhibit significant geographical variation within England.
  • Understanding the drivers of these variations is crucial for equitable resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify actual versus expected psychiatric admissions across English district health authorities.
  • To identify key socio-demographic and service provision factors influencing admission variations.
  • To develop predictive models for psychiatric admissions to aid resource allocation.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the 1986 Mental Health Enquiry for 168,652 psychiatric admissions.
  • Calculated standardized psychiatric admission ratios based on age, sex, and marital status.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Employed regression analyses with social, health status, and service provision variables to explain admission variations.

    • Main Results:

    • Actual admissions ranged from 54% below to 79% above expected rates.
    • Drug misuse notification rates, standardized mortality ratios, and illegitimacy levels were significant predictors.
    • Developed complex and simpler (underprivileged area score-based) models for predicting district and ward-level admissions.

    Conclusions:

    • Socio-environmental factors significantly influence psychiatric admission rates beyond demographic adjustments.
    • Predictive models, particularly the underprivileged area score model, can assist in targeted resource allocation for mental health services.