A review of methods to forecast restorative treatment needs

Decision makers in the areas of health policy, resource allocation, and manpower requirements rely implicitly on estimations of treatment needs on which to base their forecasts. The less specific the treatment-need estimate, the less precise the forecast. In previous decades, high caries rates were so prevalent that the dental profession could risk having inexact projections because overwhelming need and demand existed. However, rampant decay is no longer a common occurrence. Decay levels are declining in our nation's children and adults have fewer missing teeth. Therefore, restorative treatment needs and patterns in adult populations are transforming at a time when health care costs are spiraling and budget analysts at all levels of government are questioning the priority of continued support of dental care, dental education, and dental research at current levels. The purpose of this review is to present the existing methods of forecasting restorative treatment needs and to postulate the development of a new method based on the collective experiences of practicing dentists nationwide, an empirical method, to convert surface-specific oral health status data to restorative treatment need information. Need estimations based on empirical data would more accurately reflect the actual distribution of services that practicing dentists provide.