Factors influencing long-term survival and disability among three-month stroke survivors

216 survivors of acute stroke were studied 3 months postictus to determine predictors of long-term survival and disability 20 months after the initial stroke. Factors predicting mortality were, in order of importance, old age, a history of ischaemic heart disease, low mental-test score, low serum cholesterol concentration, low Glasgow Coma Score on admission, and the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy. 73% of subjects were correctly classified by discriminant function analysis using these variables. Factors predicting poor functional outcome (Barthel Index 15) were a low Barthel Index at 3 months, old age, low mental-test score at 3 months and a low Glasgow Coma Score on admission. 70% of subjects were correctly classified into 3 functional-outcome groups using these variables. Stroke subtype and size, position, and the territory of the lesion on brain CT did not influence long-term outcome. We conclude that factors affecting long-term survival and disability are different from those affecting outcome immediately after stroke.