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Theory change in immunology. Part II: The clonal selection theory
1Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Theoretical Medicine
|June 1, 1992
Summary
The clonal selection theory succeeded over the instructive theory in immunology by analyzing belief changes using a Bayesian framework. This study explores scientific theory competition and acceptance over time.
Area of Science:
- * Philosophy of Science
- * Immunology
- * History of Science
Background:
- * The period 1957-1967 witnessed a significant debate between two competing theories of the immune response: clonal selection theory and instructive theory.
- * Understanding scientific progress requires examining how theories gain acceptance and how scientific beliefs evolve over time.
Observation:
- * The concept of a temporally 'extended theory' was introduced, highlighting the importance of theory individuation.
- * A Bayesian framework was employed to model rational belief change in science.
- * Factors influencing theory acceptability at different historical points were analyzed.
Findings:
- * The clonal selection theory's success and the instructive theory's failure were explained using the Bayesian framework.
- * The framework rationalizes belief shifts based on evidence and theoretical considerations.
- * Theory individuation plays a crucial role in the dynamics of scientific competition.
Implications:
- * This research provides a rational model for understanding paradigm shifts in scientific fields.
- * The study offers insights into the historical development of immunological theories.
- * The Bayesian approach can be applied to analyze theory competition in other scientific disciplines.
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