Health economic issues relevant to countries with aging populations

This article investigates the health economic impacts of aging populations, using scenario techniques and economic systems analysis. Age-related data on hospital utilization and health care expenditure are linked with demographic models for Germany from 1990 to 2040. Findings indicate that the demographic component may not play a major role in determining long-term trends as compared with other, not yet fully elucidated components of utilization and expenditure, both of which are the result of the interplay between supply and demand in health care, and of interactions with the general economy. This acts as a deterrent against the use of simple extrapolations of current indicators (or their trends), but more adequate theoretical economic models are still lacking.