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Related Experiment Videos

Contraceptive use projections: 1990 to 2010.

J Trussell1, B Vaughan

  • 1Office of Population Research, Princeton University, NJ 08544.

American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
|October 1, 1992
PubMed
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Future contraceptive use and method choice will be influenced by predictable factors like changing demographics and evolving oral contraceptive guidelines. However, unpredictable variables such as public perception and new methods will likely cause discrepancies in projections.

Area of Science:

  • Reproductive Health
  • Demography
  • Contraceptive Technology

Background:

  • Contraceptive use and method selection are influenced by numerous evolving factors.
  • Understanding future trends requires analyzing demographic shifts and policy changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review factors affecting contraceptive use and choice over the next 20 years.
  • To project contraceptive use patterns from 1990 to 2010.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of predictable factors: changing age distribution and revised oral contraceptive age limits.
  • Consideration of less predictable factors: pregnancy risk by age, delayed childbearing, sterilization, new methods.
  • Inclusion of unpredictable factors: adverse publicity, STDs/AIDS concerns, abortion availability.
Keywords:
Abortion, InducedAbortion, LegalAcquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeAge DistributionAge FactorsAmericasBehaviorCensusContraceptionContraceptive MethodsContraceptive Usage--determinantsDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDiseasesFamily PlanningFemale SterilizationFertilityFertility Control, PostconceptionFertility MeasurementsFertility SurveysHiv InfectionsInfectionsNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaOral ContraceptivesPerceptionPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation StatisticsPsychological FactorsReproductive Tract InfectionsResearch MethodologySex BehaviorSexually Transmitted DiseasesSterilization, SexualUnited StatesViral Diseases

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Main Results:

  • Projections of oral contraception, reversible methods, sterilization, and no method use from 1990-2010.
  • Assumption that use patterns by age group will mirror 1988 observations.

Conclusions:

  • Discrepancies between projected and actual contraceptive use are probable.
  • Unpredictable variables significantly impact the accuracy of long-term contraceptive use forecasts.