Expert systems in histopathology. V. DS theory, certainty factors and possibility theory

Uncertainty management for the evaluation of evidence based on linguistic and conceptual data is taking advantage of developments in the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence, possibility theory and fuzzy logic. The DS theory offers the capability to assess the uncertainty of different subsets of assertions in a domain and the way in which uncertainty is affected by accumulating evidence. The DS theory goes beyond probability theory in its ability to represent ignorance about certain aspects of a situation. However, the theory is very sensitive to the numerical assessments provided by users and can lead to intuitively unexpected and even undesirable results. Certainty factors are widely used in various expert systems. Their definition and updating may follow either a probabilistic model or fuzzy set theoretic concept.