Prediction of superficial bladder cancer by nuclear image analysis

A cohort of 270 superficial transitional cell bladder tumours (Ta-T1) was followed-up for over 8 years. WHO grade, papillary status and six nuclear factors were related to progression, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and bladder cancer-related survival (BS) during the follow-up period. Mean nuclear area (NA), standard deviation of nuclear area (SDNA), nuclear perimetry (PE), standard deviation of nuclear perimetry (SDPE), shortest nuclear axis (Dmin) and longest nuclear axis (Dmax) were significantly related to WHO grade and papillary status (P < 0.0001). All the nuclear factors were related significantly to progression in univariate analysis (P < 0.01) whereas in a multivariate analysis WHO grade (P < 0.0001) and papillary status (P = 0.048) included independent prognostic information. RFS was related to PE (P = 0.009), SDPE (P = 0.013), Dmin (P = 0.021), Dmax (P = 0.028) and SDNA (P = 0.029). In papillary tumours SDPE (P = 0.007) and Dmin (P = 0.024) predicted RFS. BS was related to WHO grade, papillary status, NA, SDNA, PE, Dmax, Dmin (all P < 0.0001) and to SDPE (P = 0.003). In papillary tumours PE (P < 0.0001), Dmax (P = 0.0022), Dmin (P = 0.0027), WHO grade (P = 0.0036), NA (P = 0.0005), SDNA (P = 0.0355) and SDPE (P = 0.0718) predicted BS. In multivariate analysis SDPE (P = 0.029) predicted RFS and survival was related to WHO grade (P < 0.001) and PE (P = 0.014) independently. In papillary tumours only Dmax (P = 0.001) predicted survival independently. The results show that superficial papillary transitional cell bladder tumours can be efficiently categorised into prognostic groups by nuclear image analysis and the results provide a new classification system for superficial papillary bladder tumours. Tumours with high nuclear factor values should be considered for radical primary therapy and adjuvant therapy after transurethral resections.