Modelling intertidal sediment transport for nutrient change and climate change scenarios

A model of intertidal sediment transport, including effects of bioturbation and biostabilisation, was applied to two transects on the east coast of England: Leverton (within the Wash) and Skeffling (in the Humber Estuary). The physical and biological parameters were chosen to represent four 1-year scenarios: a baseline year (1995), the same year but with estuarine nitrate inputs reduced by 50% and by 16%, and a year with climate change effects estimated for 2050. The changes in nitrate supply can potentially change microphytobenthos numbers within the surface sediment, which will then affect erodibility. The model results show a range of behaviour determined by bathymetry, external forcing and biotic state. When intertidal sediment transport is dominated by external sediment supply, the model produces highest deposition at the most offshore point, and there is greatest deposition in the winter and spring, when offshore sediment concentrations are highest. When intertidal processes dominate intertidal sediment transport, there is a peak of deposition at the high-shore level and erosion at mid-tide levels. The greatest deposition now occurs in winter and summer, when low chlorophyll levels mean that the sediment is most erodible. The Skeffling transect was dominated by intertidal processes for the baseline scenario and with a 16% reduction in nitrate. Under the climate change (warm winter) scenario, the Skeffling transect was dominated by external sediment supply. The scenario with 50% reduction in nitrate gave intermediate behaviour at Skeffling (intertidally driven during the winter and summer, and governed by offshore sediment supply during spring and autumn). The Leverton transect was dominated by offshore sediment supply for all the scenarios.