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Related Experiment Videos

Estimating mean lifetime.

John Bongaarts1, Griffith Feeney

  • 1Population Council, New York, NY 10017, USA. jbongaarts@popcouncil.org

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|September 25, 2003
PubMed
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Life expectancy calculations using life tables can be skewed by a "tempo effect." This effect arises from changes in the average age at death, impacting estimates for females in several countries.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Mortality Statistics
  • Population Health

Background:

  • Life expectancy is a key demographic indicator, traditionally calculated using life table methods.
  • These methods rely on current age-specific mortality rates to estimate future lifespan.
  • Conventional life expectancy estimates may be influenced by unacknowledged biases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and quantify the 'tempo effect' in period life expectancy calculations.
  • To assess the impact of the tempo effect on life expectancy estimates for females.
  • To analyze the tempo effect in countries with high and increasing life expectancy.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized life table methodologies to calculate period life expectancy.
  • Analyzed age-specific mortality rates to identify changes in the mean age at death.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Quantified the tempo effect based on the direction and magnitude of changes in the mean age at death.

    • Main Results:

    • Demonstrated that conventional period life expectancy estimates are affected by a 'tempo effect'.
    • The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death increases and negative when it decreases.
    • For females in the U.S., Sweden, and France (1980-1995), the tempo effect ranged from 1.6 to 2.4 years.

    Conclusions:

    • The tempo effect represents an undesirable bias in standard life expectancy calculations.
    • This bias can lead to over or underestimation of true lifespan changes.
    • Further research is needed to refine demographic methods for more accurate life expectancy assessment.