The pattern of lung cancer mortality in Montenegro

The aim of the study was to examine recent lung cancer mortality trends in Montenegro in the period 1976-2000, with special emphasis on correlation with tobacco consumption. A population-based study analysing lung cancer mortality in Montenegro in the period 1976-2000 was carried out. Mortality rates were adjusted by direct method. A cohort analysis of age-specific death rates was performed. The analysis of tobacco consumption (cigarettes consumption per capita) was based on the official data for the period 1965-1990. Linear regression coefficients in a time trends analysis of mortality rates and tobacco consumption were assessed using Fisher's test. The highest average standardized lung cancer mortality rates in Montenegro increased in each successive five-year period for both sexes from 1976 to 2000, with highest values in the last five years (1996-2000). In males the death rate has almost doubled, and in females it was nearly three-fold higher. In the cohort analysis of age-specific death rates, all age groups in the birth cohort born before 1911 had a higher lung cancer mortality risk than those in the birth cohort comprising those born between 1912 and 1931. The rates showed an increasing tendency in all age groups irrespective of sex, except in males in the 25-44 age group. The time analysis of lung cancer mortality rates for the period 1976-2000, revealed annual changes of 3% for males and 6.6% for females, respectively. During the period observed the consumption of cigarettes increased by 98.2% (from 1.064 kg per capita in 1965 to 2.109 kg per capita in 1990). The significant increasing tendency in cigarette consumption was registered (y=1.10+0.05x, P=0.001). A significant correlation between lung cancer mortality rates and cigarette consumption is also observed (r=0.427, P=0.037). Smoking trends up to the 1990s in Montenegro, indicate that one can expect lung cancer mortality rates to continue to increase in males but even more so in females.