Backward location and travel time probabilities for a decaying contaminant in an aquifer

Backward location and travel time probabilities can be used to determine the prior position of contamination in an aquifer. These probabilities, which are related to adjoint states of concentration, can be used to improve characterization of known sources of groundwater contamination, to identify previously unknown contamination sources, and to delineate capture zones. The first contribution of this paper is to extend the adjoint model to the case of a decaying solute (first-order decay), and to describe two different interpretations of backward probabilities. The conventional interpretation accounts for the probability that a contaminant particle could decay before reaching the detection location. The other interpretation is conditioned on the fact that the detected contaminant particle actually reached the detection location, despite this possibility of decay. In either case, travel time probabilities are skewed toward earlier travel times, relative to a conservative solute. The second contribution of this paper is to verify the load term for a monitoring well observation. We provide examples using one-dimensional models and hypothetical aquifers. We employ an infinite domain in order to verify the monitoring well load. This new but simple one-dimensional adjoint solution can also be used to verify higher-dimensional numerical models of backward location and travel time probabilities. We employ a semi-infinite domain to illustrate the effect of decay on backward models of pumping well probabilistic capture zones. Decay causes the capture zones to fall closer to the well.