Prognostic score for kerosene oil poisoning

Ninety five consecutive children with kerosene oil poisoning were studied, the first 70 retrospectively (internal group) and the rest 25, prospectively (external group) over a period of 3 years and 8 months. Based on clinical features and severity of illness in initial 70 cases, a weighted scoring system to determine the outcome was evolved. This included: (i) fever--absent 0, present 1; (ii) severe malnutrition--absent 0, present 1; (iii) respiratory distress--absent 0, present 2, with cyanosis 4; and (iv) neurological symptoms--absent 0, present 2, with convulsions 4. The scores ranged from 0 to 10 in the internal group. Using discriminate function analysis, a score of 4 or more was found to be associated with prolonged hospital stay and complications. The risk of dying increased if the score was equal to or more than 8. The predictive value of the score was 85.7%. For validation, this scoring was applied to the external group as well and 84% of cases could be correctly predicted.