A basin-specific aquatic food web biomagnification model for estimation of mercury target levels

In the Willamette River Basin (WRB, Oregon, USA), health advisories currently limit consumption of fish that have accumulated methylmercury (MeHg) to levels posing a potential health risk for humans. Under the Clean Water Act, these advisories create the requirement for a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for mercury in the WRB. A TMDL is a calculation of the maximum amount of a pollutant that a body of water can receive and still meet water-quality standards. Because MeHg is known to biomagnify in aquatic food webs, a basin-specific biomagnification factor can be used, given a protective fish tissue criterion, to estimate total mercury concentrations in surface waters required to lower advisory mercury concentrations currently in fish in the WRB. This paper presents an aquatic food web biomagnification model that simulates inorganic mercury (Hg(II)) and MeHg accumulation in fish tissue and estimates WRB-specific biomagnification factors for resident fish species of concern to stakeholders. Probabilistic (two-dimensional Monte Carlo) techniques propagate parameter variability and uncertainty throughout the model, providing decision makers with credible range information and increased flexibility in establishing a specific mercury target level. The model predicts the probability of tissue mercury concentrations in eight fish species within the range of concentrations measured in these species over 20 years of water-quality monitoring. Estimated mean biomagnification factor values range from 1.12 x 10(6) to 7.66 x 10(6) and are within the range of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national values. Several WRB-specific mercury target levels are generated, which very by their probability of affording human health protection relative to the federal MeHg tissue criterion of 0.30 mg/kg. Establishing a specific numeric target level is, however, a public policy decision, and one that will require further discussions among WRB stakeholders.