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A Protocol for Using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis to Identify the Appropriate Animal Model for Translational Research
Published on: August 16, 2017
Simulation modeling to derive the value-of-information for risky animal disease-import decisions
W Terry Disney1, Mark A Peters
1United States Department of Agriculture, Food Safety Inspection Service, 2150 Center Avenue, Building B, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA. terry.w.disney@aphis.usda.gov
Abstract:
Simulation modeling can be used in aiding decision-makers in deciding when to invest in additional research and when the risky animal disease-import decision should go forward. Simulation modeling to evaluate value-of-information (VOI) techniques provides a robust, objective and transparent framework for assisting decision-makers in making risky animal and animal product decisions. In this analysis, the hypothetical risk from poultry disease in chicken-meat imports was modeled. Economic criteria were used to quantify alternative confidence-increasing decisions regarding potential import testing and additional research requirements. In our hypothetical example, additional information about poultry disease in the exporting country (either by requiring additional export-flock surveillance that results in no sign of disease, or by conducting additional research into lack of disease transmittal through chicken-meat ingestion) captured >75% of the value-of-information attainable regarding the chicken-meat-import decision.
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