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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Which future for the French Pyrenean brown bear (Ursus arctos) population? An approach using stage-structured
Guillaume Chapron1, Pierre-Yves Quenette, Stéphane Legendre
1Laboratoire d'Ecologie, CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris, France. gchapron@carnivoreconservation.org
Abstract:
The Pyrenean brown bear (Ursus arctos) population is considered as one of the most seriously threatened with extinction in Western Europe. To assess its viability and possible needs of augmentation, we develop deterministic and stochastic stage-structured demographic models. The deterministic model reveals that a bear population cannot have a high annual growth rate and is particularly sensitive to breeder survival. High demographic parameters appear to be crucial to population persistence, especially for a small population that remains vulnerable to demographic and environmental stochasticities. The Pyrenean population cannot therefore be considered as viable. Successful conservation strategies for this population would require releasing more bears in both sub-populations in the near future.
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