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Related Experiment Videos

Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

Richard A Wood1, Michael Vellinga, Robert Thorpe

  • 1Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, London Road, Bracknell RG42 3TQ, UK. richard.wood@metoffice.com

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|October 16, 2003
PubMed
Summary

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) could rapidly change, causing severe Northern Hemisphere cooling and altered rainfall. While gradual weakening is projected due to global warming, a shutdown remains a low-probability, high-impact risk.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is a critical component of global climate regulation.
  • Evidence suggests the THC is susceptible to abrupt shifts, including potential quasi-permanent shutdowns.
  • Such a shutdown could lead to significant Northern Hemisphere cooling and altered tropical rainfall patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the likelihood of gradual THC weakening due to global warming.
  • To assess the potential for rapid or irreversible changes in THC strength.
  • To address uncertainties in modeling and observing future THC behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence.
  • Climate modeling to project THC response to greenhouse gas concentrations.

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  • Review of current and planned projects for observational advancements.

    • Main Results:

    • Most models project a gradual weakening of the THC over the 21st century in response to global warming.
    • Significant variations exist between models regarding the magnitude of THC weakening.
    • A rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability but high-impact event, though some models indicate its possibility.

    Conclusions:

    • The future of the Atlantic THC is subject to considerable conceptual, modeling, and observational uncertainties.
    • While gradual weakening is the projected trend, the risk of abrupt changes, though low, cannot be dismissed.
    • Ongoing research aims to reduce uncertainties and improve projections of THC behavior under climate change.