Related Experiment Videos
SARA: a cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias
Rüdiger F Pohl1, Markus Eisenhauer, Oliver Hardt
1Psychology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany. ruediger.pohl@psychol.uni-giessen.de
Memory (Hove, England)
|October 18, 2003
Summary
The SARA cognitive model explains anchoring and hindsight bias through probabilistic memory sampling. It details how encoding new information alters memory retrieval, causing these cognitive biases.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Computational Neuroscience
Background:
- The anchoring effect and hindsight bias are common cognitive biases.
- Existing models lack detailed explanations of the underlying item-specific knowledge processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce and formalize the SARA cognitive process model.
- To explain the anchoring effect and hindsight bias through item-specific knowledge representation and alteration.
Main Methods:
- Developed a formal computational model named SARA.
- Utilized probabilistic sampling processes to simulate memory retrieval and encoding.
- Implemented the model as a computer program for simulations.
Main Results:
- Simulations successfully reproduced empirical findings related to anchoring and hindsight bias.
- The model demonstrated how selective activation and biased reconstruction alter memory retrieval probabilities.
- SARA predicted novel findings, showcasing its explanatory and predictive power.
Conclusions:
- The SARA model provides a detailed, mechanistic explanation for anchoring and hindsight bias.
- Probabilistic sampling of item-specific knowledge is central to these cognitive biases.
- The formalized model serves as a valuable tool for future research in cognitive biases.