Can we predict perceived risk?

Area of Science:

• Occupational Health
• Human Factors Engineering
• Psychology

Background:

• Shift work systems are prevalent in safety-critical industries.
• Assessing the safety of different shift schedules is crucial for preventing accidents.
• Subjective perceptions of risk may offer insights into safety concerns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the utility of subjective risk perception measures for evaluating shift system safety.
• To identify factors influencing engineers' perceived risk associated with different shifts.
• To compare perceived risks with established safety performance trends.

Main Methods:

• A large-scale survey was administered to safety-critical engineers.
• The survey included items on alertness, likelihood of errors, and post-shift confidence.
• Hierarchical regression analyses were used to model perceived risk.

Main Results:

• Subjective risk measures formed distinct factors for each shift type.
• Perceived night shift risk was predicted by circadian type, schedule control, and shift system features.
• Observed relationships generally aligned with performance and accident data, but with notable exceptions.

Conclusions:

• Subjective risk perception can be a valuable, albeit complex, tool for shift system safety assessment.
• Individual factors (circadian type) and work schedule control significantly impact perceived risk.
• Findings suggest that perceived risk data should be interpreted cautiously, considering potential discrepancies with objective safety indicators.