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Can we predict perceived risk?

S Folkard1, J Hill

  • 1Body Rhythms and Shiftwork Centre, University of Wales Swansea, Swansea, UK.

Journal of Human Ergology
|October 21, 2003
PubMed
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Subjective risk perception can help assess shift system safety. However, perceived night shift risks, influenced by individual factors and work schedules, require cautious interpretation due to inconsistencies with objective safety data.

Area of Science:

  • Occupational Health
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Psychology

Background:

  • Shift work systems are prevalent in safety-critical industries.
  • Assessing the safety of different shift schedules is crucial for preventing accidents.
  • Subjective perceptions of risk may offer insights into safety concerns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the utility of subjective risk perception measures for evaluating shift system safety.
  • To identify factors influencing engineers' perceived risk associated with different shifts.
  • To compare perceived risks with established safety performance trends.

Main Methods:

  • A large-scale survey was administered to safety-critical engineers.
  • The survey included items on alertness, likelihood of errors, and post-shift confidence.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Hierarchical regression analyses were used to model perceived risk.

    • Main Results:

    • Subjective risk measures formed distinct factors for each shift type.
    • Perceived night shift risk was predicted by circadian type, schedule control, and shift system features.
    • Observed relationships generally aligned with performance and accident data, but with notable exceptions.

    Conclusions:

    • Subjective risk perception can be a valuable, albeit complex, tool for shift system safety assessment.
    • Individual factors (circadian type) and work schedule control significantly impact perceived risk.
    • Findings suggest that perceived risk data should be interpreted cautiously, considering potential discrepancies with objective safety indicators.