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Implications of 2001 Census for local authority district mid-year population estimates
Population Trends
|October 30, 2003
Summary
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) assessed population estimate accuracy in England and Wales by comparing 2001 Census data with rolled-forward 1991 estimates. This analysis reveals discrepancies at the local authority district level.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Statistics
- Geographic Analysis
Background:
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced mid-2001 population estimates for England and Wales using the 2001 Census.
- An alternative set of mid-2001 estimates, rolled forward from the 1991 Census, was also generated but not published.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the accuracy of population change estimates between mid-1991 and mid-2001.
- To analyze differences between the two sets of mid-2001 population estimates at the local authority district level.
Main Methods:
- Comparison of ONS mid-2001 population estimates derived from the 2001 Census against estimates rolled forward from the 1991 Census.
- Analysis of differences at the local authority district level using descriptive statistics, proportional comparisons, and multiple regression analysis.
Main Results:
- Significant differences were observed between the two sets of population estimates at the local authority district level.
- The study identified variations in accuracy across different geographic areas within England and Wales.
Conclusions:
- The findings highlight the need for improved methods in generating mid-year population estimates.
- Recommendations are proposed to enhance the accuracy of future population estimates, informed by this comparative analysis and ongoing quality reviews.
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