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Predator-prey interactions drive collared lemming population cycles in Greenland. A model shows a 1-year delay in stoat response and fox, owl, and skua predation stabilize lemming dynamics.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Arctic Biology

Background:

  • The collared lemming is a key prey species in the high-Arctic tundra.
  • Four predator species exhibit varying consumption rates and density dependence.
  • Lemming population dynamics are influenced by predator-prey interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the population dynamics of the collared lemming.
  • To understand the role of different predators in lemming population cycles.
  • To validate model predictions with long-term empirical data.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a predator-prey model.
  • Estimation of predator numerical and functional responses from field data.
  • Comparison of model predictions with long-term lemming population data.

Main Results:

  • The model robustly predicts a 4-year periodicity in lemming population dynamics.
  • A 1-year delay in the stoat's numerical response is a key driver of cycles.
  • Predation by arctic fox, snowy owl, and long-tailed skua stabilizes dynamics through density dependence.

Conclusions:

  • Predator-prey interactions, not resource limitation, drive lemming cycles.
  • Model accurately reflects observed lemming population periodicity.
  • Understanding predator-prey dynamics is crucial for Arctic ecosystem management.