Predicting intellectual outcome among children treated with 35-40 Gy craniospinal irradiation for medulloblastoma

Fifty children diagnosed with medulloblastoma completed 188 psychological evaluations using the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children (D. Wechsler, 1974, 1991) over a 7-year study period following 35-40 Gy postoperative craniospinal irradiation. Random coefficient models were used to predict the trend in the children's intellectual performance as a function of time since diagnosis, with both patient and treatment variables as parameters of this function. A quadratic model demonstrated a delay prior to decline in performance for older patients, whereas the younger patients showed an immediate loss of performance with a plateau at approximately 6 years postdiagnosis. A steeper decline was found for those with higher baseline performance. Clinicians may use the proposed predictive model to identify those patients who are at risk of significant intellectual decline.