The importance of multiphase and multicomponent modeling in consequence and risk analysis

The ability to accurately predict the consequences of hazardous fluid release is dependent on three things: the knowledge of the modeler, the quality of the model that is used, and the quality of the input parameters. One of the most difficult problems in consequence modeling is the prediction of post-release multiphase behavior, especially when a multicomponent mixture is involved. Releases from gas/oil wells often fit this description. The wellstream will produce a light crude oil and a gas stream when flashed into a separator. If accidentally released to the atmosphere, the gas, aerosol, and liquid fractions rarely match the phase separations in the separator, or the expectations of the modeler. And, since the wellstream has a wide range of hydrocarbon components, the need to accurately predict the multicomponent behavior becomes more important. Over the years, modelers have used several "rules of thumb" to provide the source term input parameters for modeling multiphase/multicomponent releases and subsequent dispersion. These modeling assumptions can lead to hazard predictions that are very different from reality. The biggest problem with rules of thumb is their inability to account for thermodynamics; thus, they cannot approximate the phase splits and composition changes that do occur. The aim of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the modeler by providing some insight into the selection of the proper input parameters for multiphase releases of multicomponent fluids. The application of a multiphase release model with multicomponent thermodynamics to a wellstream release is used to illustrate the importance of good modeling techniques.