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El Niño and health
R Sari Kovats1, Menno J Bouma, Shakoor Hajat
1Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk
Lancet (London, England)
|November 7, 2003
Summary
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern influences global weather, increasing disaster impacts and disease risks like cholera and malaria. Understanding ENSO aids public health preparedness and resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean.
- ENSO events, including El Niño and La Niña, significantly impact global weather patterns, often leading to extreme events like droughts and floods.
- These climatic shifts have well-documented implications for public health, particularly concerning infectious disease outbreaks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review the established and potential links between ENSO and public health outcomes.
- To highlight the implications of ENSO for disease risk management and disaster preparedness.
- To inform health planners on leveraging climate forecasts for temporal risk management.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review of time-series analyses examining ENSO's association with disease incidence.
- Evaluation of evidence strength for ENSO's impact on various infectious diseases.
- Analysis of the implications for public health planning and resource allocation.
Main Results:
- ENSO is strongly associated with increased human impact from natural disasters globally.
- Established links exist between ENSO and heightened risks of cholera in Bangladesh and malaria in South Asia and South America.
- Evidence for ENSO's influence on other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases is less robust compared to malaria and cholera.
Conclusions:
- ENSO presents a significant temporal risk factor for public health, necessitating integration into planning.
- Seasonal climate forecasts, including ENSO predictions, offer opportunities for proactive epidemic control and disaster preparedness.
- Shifting health planning from purely spatial to include temporal risk management is crucial for effective resource targeting.
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