Predicting outcome in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: a prospective study of 100 consecutive cases

Case selection for surgery in patients presenting with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAA) is often difficult. A previous retrospective review identified five pre-operative risk factors associated with mortality [J Vasc Surg 23 (1996) 123]. In this study we aimed to identify whether these criteria could be usefully applied prospectively in patients presenting with RAAA.

All patients presenting with RAAA from October 2000 to December 2002 were included. The criteria were recorded with the time they were available and the time surgery commenced. The decision to operate was made on clinical grounds and no patient was refused surgery on the basis of these criteria.

One hundred consecutive patients were studied, median age 75 (range 54-94). The operative mortality was 32.9% (26/79 patients). Surgical mortality increased with the number of positive criteria and was 8% (2/24), 24% (7/29), 55% (11/20) and 100% (6/6) for scores, 0, 1, 2 and > or =3, respectively. Age and conscious level were available in every patient. However, an ECG, haemoglobin and creatinine results were only available in 94, 81, and 69%, respectively.

The scoring system accurately predicted operative mortality. The score was available in the majority of cases and may help the surgeon give informed consent to patients and relatives prior to surgical intervention.