Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Predicting the pediatric workforce: use of trend analysis.

Gary L Freed1, Tammie A Nahra, John R C Wheeler

  • 1Division of General Pediatrics, Child Health Evaluation, and Research Unit, and the Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-0456, USA. gfreed@med.umich.edu

The Journal of Pediatrics
|November 15, 2003
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Association of Medicaid expansion with children's insurance coverage and healthcare utilization.

Health affairs scholar·2026
Same author

Concerns regarding the pediatric workforce: what are we missing?

Pediatric research·2025
Same author

Pediatrician Work Hours: 2013-2022.

Pediatrics·2025
Same author

Differences in Pediatricians' Income by Sex Over Time.

Pediatrics·2024
Same author

Error Rates in Race and Ethnicity Designation Across Large Pediatric Health Systems.

JAMA network open·2024
Same author

Implications of Patient-Provider Concordance on Treatment Recommendations for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.

Journal of hand surgery global online·2024
Same journal

Moving Forward Together: Physical Fitness Assessment among Children Living with Obesity: A Multi-Stakeholder Conference.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
Same journal

Postoperative Intensive Care Unit Stay After Congenital Lung Malformation Resection: Not Always a Necessary Stop.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
Same journal

Pediatric Neuroinflammatory and Neuropsychiatric Syndromes Associated with Dupilumab Treatment for Atopic Dermatitis.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
Same journal

Parental Perspectives and Experiences with Genetic Testing and Surveillance for Cancer Predisposition in Healthy Young Children.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
Same journal

Correlation of Oxygen Saturation Index with Oxygenation Index in Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia: in A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
Same journal

Don't Skip A Beat: Deliberate Practice and Mastery Learning of Pediatric Electrocardiograms.

The Journal of pediatrics·2026
See all related articles

A new predictive model accurately forecasts the pediatric workforce by correlating economic activity with physician numbers. This model shows high accuracy over decades, aiding future healthcare planning.

Area of Science:

  • Healthcare workforce analysis
  • Predictive modeling in public health
  • Pediatric medical workforce trends

Background:

  • The pediatric workforce is crucial for child health outcomes.
  • Accurate forecasting of physician supply is essential for healthcare planning.
  • Previous models for physician workforce trends require refinement.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive model for the pediatric workforce.
  • To assess the model's retrospective accuracy over several decades.
  • To understand the relationship between economic indicators and pediatrician supply.

Main Methods:

  • Applied a modified physician workforce trend model.
  • Analyzed the correlation between economic activity (GDP per capita) and active pediatricians (1963-2000).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized linear trend analyses for economic and population projections using historical data.

    • Main Results:

    • Significant growth in the absolute number of pediatricians observed over decades.
    • A strong correlation (R²=0.98) was found between GDP per capita and pediatricians per 100,000 children (1963-2000).
    • Model predictions based on historical data showed high correlation with actual pediatrician supply.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed predictive model for the pediatric workforce demonstrated high accuracy and consistency.
    • The model's reliability was validated over a 37-year period.
    • This approach provides a robust tool for projecting future pediatric physician supply.